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Welcome to
Utah. On behalf of Western Governors University and the National
Governors' Association's Center for Best Practices, we are delighted
to have you here. May I offer heartfelt appreciation to our corporate
sponsors who have made this possible, and to all of you who have
traveled here to make this a very productive couple of days.
This morning
I was thumbing through Time magazine and found a clip that defines
quite well the difficulty of the challenges we face. Just two lines
tucked away in the front section of the magazine where you find
the cartoons and letters to the editor. This particular section
is called "Numbers." The first number cited was 93 the
percentage of sixth graders who can explain what a modem does.
The second number was 23, and that was the percentage of Fortune
1000 executives who could explain what a modem does.
I'm not too
far ahead of that curve myself. A couple months ago, my family
and I were in California on vacation. I bought a new modem there
and decided to put it into my computer. Big mistake. I got the
computer disassembled, parts all over the table. Couldn't get it
to work. So I called the computer store's number to get some technical
assistance. It was after 6 p.m., so the phone rang and rang. But
I was desperate and I let it ring on. Finally, there was an answer.
"Hello," I said. "I am so glad you answered. I've
got my computer taken apart. I've got the board out." I'm
telling this guy where I've got it positioned. And he said, "Mister,
I'm the janitor here, and when I told you hello, I told you all
I know."
I felt a little
like the fellow from the technical support operation at one of
our telecommunications companies here who told me about people
who call in with questions. He said one caller wanted to know if
the paper cup holder on his computer was covered under the warranty.
The technician said, "What do you mean the paper cup holder?"
The man said, "You know, the thing you push, the button on
the front, it slides out and you put your cup in it."
These are 20th
century problems, soon to be 21st century problems. The 20th century
and the Industrial Age are on the wane. The transition to the Information
Age is before us. It is one of the most challenging experiences
in human history. But it is also the brink of unparalleled opportunity
in the way that we can and ultimately will deliver education.
Higher education
will soon be a global market. In the few years we have between
then and now, the window is wide open for a nation, a group, any
collaboration of private or public, individual and collective,
to design and remake the education delivery system that will reshape
the world.
Leadership
could come from anywhere. It could come from a nation like Malaysia,
which does not have the size and resources to become a traditional
learning center, yet is positioning itself in virtual learning
to become a major force. Possibly it could come from China, where
government officials say the key to the well-being of their people,
from the biggest cities to the smallest villages, is education.
Most logically, the leadership should come from us.
But the race
is on, and the outcome is going to change not just higher education,
but people around the globe. This is a chance not only to export
knowledge, but to lift societies. It is opportunity from a humanitarian
standpoint. I remember very clearly last July standing in a marketplace
in China, talking to a young soldier 16 years old. He wanted to
study at the university but could not. He was experienced in distance
learning. I asked him how it was that he was taking classes. He
said it was OK but that he would rather be going to the university
because the education he was getting was not high quality.
This is an
opportunity for us to literally bring the highest quality education
to that soldier. Or to the ambassador from West Africa who told
me of his people's hunger to learn, and thereby expand and improve
themselves, as the country democratizes. Or the middle-aged worker
who is now having to retool himself. Or the single parent on welfare
struggling mightily for a better life.
Education is
a springboard to freedom and prosperity. It is the neutralizer
of poverty, the equalizer of circumstance. It is the way up and
the way out. Technology will pave the way for more people than
has ever been possible before. People who until now did not have
the access, the time, the money, the opportunity. Because of technology,
higher education will no longer have barriers. Boundaries are disappearing
daily.
Look at the
growth occurring in the information technology sector. The U.S.
Department of Commerce says Internet traffic is doubling every
100 days. That's a 700 percent annual increase. The number of Internet
users has gone from three million in 1993 to more than 100 million
last year. It took television 13 years to do that. It took the
Internet just four.
Look at bandwidth.
When the first transcontinental telegraph was sent, it went across
that wire at about five bits per second. Today we are routinely
streaming bits of data at 200 and 300 bits of information a second
down cables and fiber optic wires. We will soon be doing it at
trillions of bits and at the speed of light.
The world is
beginning to operate more and more like a group of networked PC's
individual power centers coordinated in a way that multiplies their
capacity. Local control but center coordination. That is a phrase
I believe will need to become the mantra of the 21st century, and
it is the theme on which I would like to speak today. Local control,
but central coordination.
This past week,
we have seen two major events: the financial world consolidating,
with banks, insurance companies and brokerage houses reshaping
themselves into networked powerhouses; and an alignment between
two major airlines, Delta and United. Who would have thought those
two powerhouses, operating as individual entities and competitors,
could bring themselves together to form a more efficient unit.
Local control but central coordination.
It's happening
in the telecommunications industry. Competitors are having to cooperate
because consumers are demanding not just competition, but the convenience
and ease of use that comes from local control but central coordination.
In the field of electric utilities, there is choice now where none
would dream. This represents a dramatic expansion of opportunity
for higher education, its role and its mission.
An economic
system that educates only a steady stream of young people will
fall behind in the 21st century. Successful societies in the 21st
century will be those that find a way to continually raise the
level of knowledge in their entire population rapidly and repeatedly.
A few decades can make an enormous difference. Fifty years ago,
Japan an economic power today had an economy the
size of modern-day Ethiopia.
The response
of a nation's higher education system to this transition will ultimately
determine its stake in the next generation of world economic power.
That has been made clear to me in many ways ... The CEO of an $8
billion company, who told me if he misses one product cycle, his
company is seriously imperiled .... The coal mine I visited with
my son and daughter last summer, where the earth was moved by five
or six people using computer technology. An industry that years
ago could have satisfied the needs of a family for 30 years because
it required skills learned in high school and provided a better
than average wage. But no more. .... It could have been reaffirmed
to me by Malaysia, which sent representatives to a meeting of the
Western Governors University to say that it could no longer count
on low-cost manufacturing for its prosperity. "We have to
be an information society," they said. And they are moving
their entire culture in that direction.
This will be
a remarkably important transforming event during the next decade.
There is radical expansion opportunity available for higher education.
It is a huge growth industry. But there will be, predictably, a
painful transition.
Look at the
other industries I've mentioned. Terms that have been associated
with their transitions are becoming relevant to higher education
more every day. Terms like "unbundling," "cherrypicking,"
"alliances," "strategic partnerships." These
have been used in telecommunications, with electric utilities,
at banks and financial institutions, and now in higher education.
Like any other
marketplace, there are going to be institutions that win and lose.
This is a huge transformation that will occur over decades. Institutions
will still maintain their independence. But they will become stronger,
more efficient and responsive by aligning themselves in the global
networks of collaboration. Again, local control, central coordination.
An academic
common market is emerging, one with common currency and code. The
currency of higher education at present is "credit,"
the unit of time spent in class receiving instruction. It may or
may not be exchangeable with another institution. In the academic
common market, the currency, the new Euro. Will be competency a
guarantee to the marketplace that the student is competent in the
field of his or her degree.
This new academic
common market will create a system that is based on learning, not
teaching. It is a system that will be centered around students,
not institutions. It will be a system that measures quality in
terms of output, not by brand name of the producer. Value-added
market pricing will be a part of this common market and it will
invite new competitors from the private sector that will drive
costs down and quality up.
Campuses are
going to change. We will always have them. But whereas today students
gather there to learn and then go off campus to have their knowledge
enhanced in internships or in study programs, tomorrow's students
are going to mostly learn off campus and then return to have their
knowledge enhanced through laboratories and interaction with faculty
and discussion groups.
The faculties
themselves will change. They will be more technologically able.
They will be less attached to the campus. They will be more accountable
for results. They will be dramatically more productive, and they
will be better paid. The governing boards of our institutions will
spend more time discussing competition, alliances and markets than
they will tenure and state funding.
Much of the
infrastructure of this higher education common market is going
to be built not simply by states and private institutions, but
by the entertainment and communications industries. A couple years
ago, direct television, for example, had zero installations. Today
there are literally thousands of small satellites on the tops of
houses all over the world forming the equivalent of two-way interactive
video.
I listened
a couple days ago as the postmaster general of the United States
described what will become the future of the Postal Service: vast
global networks connecting literally every home and the delivery
of information worldwide. Imagine the post office ultimately becoming
part of the higher education system, able to deliver content literally
anywhere in the world.
There will
be new learning tools that make learning available and more efficient
without regard to time, place or space. Will students still go
to class? Will they live at the dorm and hang out at the student
union building? Yes. But they will also have as part of their education,
technology delivered education. It will be a part of every student's
education. And college graduation for them, as well as everyone
else in the world, will become an orientation to lifelong learning.
From suppliers
of courses and curriculum to competition within academe, this academic
common market will create an entire cast of new players and competitors.
Publishing companies will develop curriculum. Corporations will
develop their own universities. And the system will be driven into
an atmosphere that is not mass-production oriented, but mass-customization
oriented. Every student will have the ability to craft this package
in a way that fits them.
There are many
who just don't believe this is going to happen. There are some
that just don't think it ought to happen. I had a professor tell
me not long ago, "This scares the hell out of me." I
said, "If it does, then just don't do it."
It is not going
to be governors or state legislators that decide this. The faculty
senate is not going to decide. The marketplace is going to make
this decision. And just like Delta and United Airlines would have
never thought of remaining competitors by combining their systems.
And just like the electric utilities that never thought of themselves
as being in a competitive business. Just like the retailers who
never thought they would have to compete with someone in New York
for my shopping. Or just like a coal miner who never thought he
would mine coal with a computer, it will happen. And the marketplace
will bring it because it is in the best interest of the student.
There is a
great Utah entrepreneur, Ray Noorda, who made a statement that
applies well when it comes to change in the Information Age. He
said there are three ways you can deal with it: You can fight it
and die; you can accept it and survive; or you can lead it and
prosper. This is a conference for those who are determined that
this nation or their nation will be among those who lead and prosper.
Again, technology
is an enabler of this unprecedented opportunity, but its proliferation
presents a problem. There is no synchronization, no uniformity,
no worldwide standard. In essence, a barrier. And that is why we
are here. Standards will make it all manageable. And we've been
good at coming up with them as we've needed them in the past. We've
done it with e-mail systems and standard communications. We've
been able to do it with CD's and VHS tapes and DVD video. We will
do it again with education technology.
The purpose
of this conference is to start putting distance education methodologies
on a common path. To come up with a common set of technology standards
for use nationally and internationally. To identify the functional
requirements for implementation. It is a very challenging proposition.
But it is a very exciting proposition as well.
We are now
delivering distance education through broadcast and interactive
television, satellite, telephone and Internet. Advances in digital
technology will allow voice and data and video to travel more rapidly
from place to place. We have the power, we have the flexibility
at our fingertips, so let's give it the uniformity that it requires
as well.
There are many
other groups working on standards. We all know what the problem
is. Standards have not been defined. Most technology-in-education
efforts face the same four dilemmas: hardware, infrastructure,
professional development and content. We will confront some of
these issues here.
The end result
will be a written report that we can all use to move forward in
developing information technology standards. We can make a powerful
and lasting contribution. This will not be the end. It will be
the beginning.
It is my hope
that two things will occur here. One is that people with a common
commitment will come together. The other is that we will keep working
together, and as we formalize our ideas, we will move the world
forward so that the soldier in China and the village of the West
African ambassador will have the benefit of local control, central
coordination.
Then, as a
governor and as a father who has set some high educational goals
for his children, as most parents in America have I can say to
every family that has ever scrimped or dreamed, every adult who
did not have enough time or money, every transitional worker changing
paths and going back, and every high schooler pondering whether
to move forward I can say, "You will have more opportunity
as a result of our work."
We are not
going to look back. We are pressing ahead to make education more
affordable, more accessible and more acclimated to a fast-paced
world rushing headlong into the age of information. Thank you.
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